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Corn Harvest Quality Report 2012/2013

Contents

  1. Harvest Quality Highlights
  2. Introduction
  3. Quality Test Results
  4. Moisture
  5. Chemical Composition
  6. Physical Factors
  7. Mycotoxins
  8. Crop and Weather Conditions
  9. Planting and Early Growth Conditions - Spring (March-May)
  10. Pollination and Grain Fill Conditions - Summer (June-August)
  11. Harvest Conditions (August-October +)
  12. U.S. Corn Production, Usage, Outlook
  13. U.S. Corn Use and Ending Stocks
  14. Outlook
  15. Survey and Statistical Analysis Methods
  16. Survey Design and Sampling
  17. Statistical Analysis
  18. Testing Analysis Methods
  19. Corn Grading Factors
  20. Moisture
  21. Chemical Composition
  22. Physical Factors
  23. Mycotoxin Testing
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C. Outlook

1. U.S. Outlook

  • The very tight U.S. corn supply for projected MY12/13 is prompting two reactions. The first is increased U.S. corn imports from Brazil and Argentina into the southeast feed market due to the shortage in the Corn Belt. The second is the rationing of domestic corn use and exports through higher prices. This is resulting in a projected overall decline in domestic use of 9% from MY11/12.
  • Domestic corn use for livestock and poultry feeding is expected to be about 9% lower in MY12/13 than in MY11/12. This is due primarily to decreasing beef feedlot inventories.
  • Corn use for food, seed and non-ethanol industrial (FSI) purposes is expected to be 4 to 5% lower in MY12/13 than in MY11/12. Decreased projected use for high-fructose corn syrup and starch production overshadows the projected increase in other FSI uses.
  • While U.S. ethanol production has experienced strong growth over the past few years, corn use for ethanol production in MY12/13 is expected to decline about 10% from the previous year.
  • U.S. exports for MY12/13 are projected to decline for the third year in a row, and be about 25% lower than in MY11/12. This is partially due to the continued strength in U.S. corn prices and increased competition from South America and Ukraine, which are increasing exports of corn and feed quality wheat.
  • MY12/13 is expected to close with historically tight U.S. ending stocks of around 16.4 mmt as reductions in supply continue to exceed reductions in use.

2. International Outlook

Global Supply

  • Corn production outside the United States during MY12/13 is expected to be lower than the record peak set in the previous marketing year, yet it will still be the second highest on record.
  • Greater production in countries such as Argentina, South Africa, Mexico and China has largely offset lower production in the United States, Brazil and the Ukraine, compared to the previous marketing year.
  • In addition to lower U.S. exports, total nonU.S. exports are also expected to be lower in MY12/13 than in MY11/12.
  • Exports from Argentina and South Africa are expected to be higher while exports from Brazil and Former Soviet Union–12 (FSU-12) (including the Ukraine) are expected to be lower in MY12/13.

Global Demand

  • Global use is expected to decline around 2% in MY12/13 from MY11/12.
  • Year-over-year increases in imports are expected in the European Union-27 (EU-27), Japan, and South Korea, while decreased imports are projected for Egypt, Mexico and Southeast Asia.