Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 5.6 percent lower but were essentially steady in early week trading and fell 0.1 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 1.8 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 49.24 cents/liter (186.38 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 5.3 percent lower and are down 1.8 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 47.65 cents/liter (180.37 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 1.4 percent to 56.42 cents/liter (213.58 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -8.77 cents/liter (-33.21 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 2.9 percent last week but showed signs of strengthening in early week trading to gain 0.5 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 15.13 cents/liter (57.26 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week and were mostly lower again through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 4.3 percent while Toluene was up 0.2 percent, and Xylene was down 2.2 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 72.51 cents/liter (274.5 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 24.87 cents/liter (94.13 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly higher last week but are paring back those losses in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 2.7 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 2.6 and up 2.6 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 2.8 percent higher at $70.54/barrel while Brent futures are up 2.8 percent to $73.07/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 2 percent lower on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 7 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to Brazil saw the largest declines and is down 12 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 2 percent this week while freight from the PNW is unchanged. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 1 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 14 percent lower than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have moved below last week’s values. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 4 percent this week and are down 25.6 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $740.46/MT this week, down 2.5 percent from the prior week and down 24.7 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $687.79/MT and are down 3.7 percent from last week and are down 26.8 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 0.1 percent from last week.
