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2015/2016 Sorghum Harvest and Export Quality Report

Contents

  1. Harvest Quality Highlights
  2. Export Quality Highlights
  3. Introduction
  4. Harvest Quality Test Results
  5. Moisture
  6. Physical Factors
  7. Mycotoxins
  8. Export Quality Test Results
  9. Moisture
  10. Chemical Composition
  11. Physical Factors
  12. Mycotoxins
  13. Crop and Weather Conditions
  14. Planting and Early Growth Conditions
  15. Late Vegetative and Mid-Pollination Conditions
  16. Maturity and Harvest Conditions
  17. Comparison of 2015 to 2010-2014
  18. U.S. Sorghum Export System
  19. U.S. Sorghum Export Flow
  20. Impact of the Sorghum Market Channel on Quality
  21. U.S. Government Inspection and Grading
  22. U.S. Sorghum Production, Usage and Outlook
  23. U.S. Sorghum Use and Ending Stocks
  24. Outlook
  25. Harvest Survey and Statistical Analysis Methods
  26. Survey Design and Sampling
  27. Statistical Analysis
  28. Export Survey and Statistical Analysis Methods
  29. Survey Design and Sampling
  30. Statistical Analysis
  31. Testing Analysis Methods
  32. Sorghum Grading Factors
  33. Moisture
  34. Chemical Composition
  35. Physical Factors
  36. Mycotoxin Testing
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C. Statistical Analysis

The sample test results for the grade factors, moisture, chemical composition, and physical factors were summarized as the U.S. Harvest Aggregate and also by two groups. The groups, which harvest sorghum in differing time periods, were labeled as Harvest Areas:

  • The Early Harvest Area, which consists of areas that typically harvest sorghum from the beginning of July through the end of September; and
  • The Late Harvest Area, which consists of areas that typically harvest sorghum from the beginning of September through the end of November or later.

In analyzing the harvest sample test results, the Council followed standard statistical techniques employed for proportionate stratified sampling, including weighted averages and standard deviations. In addition to the weighted averages and standard deviations for the U.S. Harvest Aggregate, weighted averages and standard deviations were calculated for the Harvest Areas. First, each sampled ASD was categorized by Harvest Area, based on historical USDA state-level harvest progress data, with each ASD exclusively belonging to one Harvest Area. Second, each ASD was weighted by its estimated proportion of foreign exports. The Harvest Area and U.S. Harvest Aggregate statistics were calculated using these weights.

The Relative ME was calculated for each of the quality factors for the U.S. Harvest Aggregate and for each of the Harvest Areas. The Relative ME for the quality factor results was less than ± 10%, except for total damage for the U.S. Harvest Aggregate and Early Harvest Area, and for foreign material and BNFM for the Early Harvest Area. The Relative ME for total damage, foreign material, and BNFM are shown in the table to the right.

While the level of precision for these quality factors is lower than desired, these levels of Relative ME do not invalidate the estimates. Footnotes in the summary tables for “Grade Factors and Moisture” indicate the attributes for which the Relative ME exceeds ± 10%.