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2015/2016 Sorghum Harvest and Export Quality Report

Contents

  1. Harvest Quality Highlights
  2. Export Quality Highlights
  3. Introduction
  4. Harvest Quality Test Results
  5. Moisture
  6. Physical Factors
  7. Mycotoxins
  8. Export Quality Test Results
  9. Moisture
  10. Chemical Composition
  11. Physical Factors
  12. Mycotoxins
  13. Crop and Weather Conditions
  14. Planting and Early Growth Conditions
  15. Late Vegetative and Mid-Pollination Conditions
  16. Maturity and Harvest Conditions
  17. Comparison of 2015 to 2010-2014
  18. U.S. Sorghum Export System
  19. U.S. Sorghum Export Flow
  20. Impact of the Sorghum Market Channel on Quality
  21. U.S. Government Inspection and Grading
  22. U.S. Sorghum Production, Usage and Outlook
  23. U.S. Sorghum Use and Ending Stocks
  24. Outlook
  25. Harvest Survey and Statistical Analysis Methods
  26. Survey Design and Sampling
  27. Statistical Analysis
  28. Export Survey and Statistical Analysis Methods
  29. Survey Design and Sampling
  30. Statistical Analysis
  31. Testing Analysis Methods
  32. Sorghum Grading Factors
  33. Moisture
  34. Chemical Composition
  35. Physical Factors
  36. Mycotoxin Testing
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VIII. U.S. SORGHUM PRODUCTION, USAGE AND OUTLOOK

A. U.S. Sorghum Production1

1. U.S. Average Production and Yields

  • According to the December 2015 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, average U.S. sorghum yield for the 2015 crop is projected to be 4.9 mt/ha (77.7 bu/ac). This is 0.6 mt/ha (10.1 bu/ac) higher than the 2014 sorghum crop, and is the highest average yield on record.
  • The number of hectares harvested in 2015 is projected to be 3.1 million (7.6 mil ac). This is 0.5 mil ha (1.2 mil ac) more than in 2014. The projected 3.1 mil ha harvested in 2015 is the highest since 2003.
  • Total U.S. sorghum production for 2015 is projected to be 15.1 mmt (593.8 mil bu). This is about 4.1 mmt (161.2 mil bu) higher than 2014, and is the highest since 1999.
  • After producing the smallest crop since 1956 in 2011, sorghum production has sharply rebounded. With the most harvested hectares in more than a decade and the highest average yield on record, the 2015 sorghum crop is projected to be the largest in the past 16 years.

2. ASD and State-Level Production

The geographic areas included in the 2015/2016 Harvest Survey encompass the highest sorghumproducing areas in the United States. This can be seen on the map showing projected 2015 sorghum production by USDA Agricultural Statistical District (ASD).

Relative to the sorghum crop produced in 2014, the increased size of the 2015 crop was primarily driven by higher production in Kansas, Arkansas, and Texas compared to 2014. Of the remaining six states, only Louisiana had lower production in 2015 than in 2014.

The U.S. Sorghum Production table summarizes the differences in both quantity (mmt) and percentages between 2014 and projected 2015 sorghum production for each state. Also included is an indication of the relative changes in harvested acres and yield between 2014 and projected 2015. The green bar indicates a relative increase and the red bar indicates a relative decrease from 2014 to projected 2015. This illustrates that harvested acres were higher across the board, with the exception of Louisiana. Yield changes were also generally higher, with large increases (greater than 10%) in Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska. Louisiana was the only state surveyed that experienced a large yield decrease (greater than 10%).

1 mt – metric ton; mmt – million metric tons; ha – hectare; bu – bushel; mil bu – million bushels; ac – acre.