Vietnam

Supply/Demand Basics

  • Largest animal feed market in Southeast Asia, over 31 MMT in 2018.
  • Largest corn importer in Southeast Asia, over 10 MMT in 2018.
  • Imports over 2 MMT of feed wheat annually – Black Sea.
  • 4th largest importer of DDGS in the world in 2018.
  • Tremendous growth in commercial feed market, expected to eclipse 35 MMT.
  • Forecast to become the world’s largest per capita consumer of pork by 2020.

Country Overview

  • Population / growth: 96.1 million / 1%
  • Urban / growth: 35% / 3%
  • GDP(PPP) / growth: $644 billion / 6.3%
  • GDP per capita: $6,900
  • High commercial lending rate.
  • Median age of 30 years old.
  • Vietnam’s economic growth momentum remains robust in 2018.
  • New destination for global manufacturing sector as China’s wages increase.
  • 2018 marks the 23rd anniversary since the U.S. normalized relations.

Trade and Market Share Issues

  • Low market share due to poor freight spreads and moisture levels in US corn.
  • Relatively low buyer sophistication with high counterparty credit risk.
  • Large unofficial cross border trade with China on all sectors.
  • Insect issue has the potential to threaten U.S. DDGS exports.
  • Roughly 30 GM events have not been approved since 2016.
  • A glyphosate ban is pending but highly likely, presumably politically motivated.
  • Detections of Canadian Thistle has threatened a market closure soybeans and wheat.

Policy Issues

  • 5% corn tariff.
  • 0% tariff on CGM/DDGS.
  • 100% Phosphine gas fumigation at origin necessary for DDGS.
  • Maximum 14% moisture requirement for imported corn.
  • Vietnam is one of the few GMO cultivating countries in Asia.
  • We are currently pending for APHIS Hanoi to present the PRA to PPD Vietnam.