Supply/Demand Basics
- Largest animal feed market in Southeast Asia, over 31 MMT in 2018.
- Largest corn importer in Southeast Asia, over 10 MMT in 2018.
- Imports over 2 MMT of feed wheat annually – Black Sea.
- 4th largest importer of DDGS in the world in 2018.
- Tremendous growth in commercial feed market, expected to eclipse 35 MMT.
- Forecast to become the world’s largest per capita consumer of pork by 2020.
Country Overview
- Population / growth: 96.1 million / 1%
- Urban / growth: 35% / 3%
- GDP(PPP) / growth: $644 billion / 6.3%
- GDP per capita: $6,900
- High commercial lending rate.
- Median age of 30 years old.
- Vietnam’s economic growth momentum remains robust in 2018.
- New destination for global manufacturing sector as China’s wages increase.
- 2018 marks the 23rd anniversary since the U.S. normalized relations.
Trade and Market Share Issues
- Low market share due to poor freight spreads and moisture levels in US corn.
- Relatively low buyer sophistication with high counterparty credit risk.
- Large unofficial cross border trade with China on all sectors.
- Insect issue has the potential to threaten U.S. DDGS exports.
- Roughly 30 GM events have not been approved since 2016.
- A glyphosate ban is pending but highly likely, presumably politically motivated.
- Detections of Canadian Thistle has threatened a market closure soybeans and wheat.
Policy Issues
- 5% corn tariff.
- 0% tariff on CGM/DDGS.
- 100% Phosphine gas fumigation at origin necessary for DDGS.
- Maximum 14% moisture requirement for imported corn.
- Vietnam is one of the few GMO cultivating countries in Asia.
- We are currently pending for APHIS Hanoi to present the PRA to PPD Vietnam.
