Supply/Demand Basics

  • Largest animal feed market in Southeast Asia, over 30 MMT in 2019.
  • Largest corn importer in Southeast Asia, over 10 MMT in 2019.
  • Imports over 4-5 MMT of feed wheat annually – for food and feed usage.
  • 2nd largest importer of DDGS in the world in 2018.
  • Tremendous growth in commercial feed market, expected to eclipse 35 MMT.
  • ASF is transforming the swine industry from back yard operations to large modern commercial farms.

Country Overview

  • Population / growth: 98 million / 1%
  • Urban / growth: 37.3% / 3%
  • GDP(PPP) / growth: $770 billion / 6.3%
  • GDP per capita: $8,066
  • Median age of 31 years old.
  • Vietnam’s GDP is expected to exceed 7% in 2019, on robust exports and FDI
  • New destination for global manufacturing sector as China’s wages increase.
  • 2020 marks the 25th anniversary since the U.S. normalized relations.

Trade and Market Share Overview

  • Low market share due to poor freight spreads and moisture levels in US corn.
  • Relatively low buyer sophistication with high counterparty credit risk.
  • Large unofficial cross border trade with China on all sectors.
  • Insect issue has the potential to threaten U.S. DDGS exports.
  • Roughly 30 GM events have not been approved since 2016.
  • A glyphosate ban is pending but highly likely, presumably politically motivated.
  • Detections of Canadian Thistle has threatened a market closure soybeans and wheat.

Policy Overview

  • 5% corn tariff.
  • 0% tariff on CGM/DDGS.
  • 100% Phosphine gas fumigation at origin necessary for DDGS.
  • Maximum 14% moisture requirement for imported corn.
  • Vietnam is one of the few GMO cultivating countries in Asia.