Supply/Demand Basics
-Largest animal feed market in Southeast Asia, producing over 30 MMT.
-Largest corn importer in Southeast Asia, importing 9.5 MMT in 2022/23 and11.2 MMT in MY 2023/2024.
-Imports over 4-5 MMT of feed wheat annually – for food and feed usage.
-Third largest importer of DDGS in MY 2022/2023 at 1.11 MMT.
-ASF is prompting the swine industry to transition from backyard operations to large modern commercial farms, boosting compound feed demand.
Country Overview
-Median age of 32.8 years old.
-Vietnam’s GDP is projected to grow at 6% in 2024.
-Manufacturing and exports rebounded in H2 2023, with further recovery expected.
-Increasing food prices presents a risk of higher CPI.
Trade and Market Share Overview
-U.S. DDGS losing market share amid increasing competition from Brazil.
-Relatively low buyer sophistication with medium counterparty credit risk.
-Large unofficial cross-border trade with China in all sectors.
-Fumigation requirements hinder U.S. DDGS export potential.
-Detections of Canadian Thistle have threatened a market closure of soybeans and wheat.
Policy Overview
-2% corn tariff (reduced in 2021 from 5%).
-0% tariff on CGM/DDGS.
-Import permit is no longer required for U.S. DDGS.
-Phosphine gas fumigation at the origin is necessary for DDGS.
-Vietnam is one of the few GMO cultivating countries in Asia.
