Supply/Demand Basics

  • 18 MMT total feed production, up 7% YOY.
  • Thai  farmers shifting out of corn and opting instead for cassava.
  • Gradual recovery in shrimp production seen after Early Mortality Syndrome outbreak.
  • Flattening feed production growth outlook.
  • Feed production breakdown: broiler = 40%, swine = 30%, layer = 20%.

Country Overview

  • Population: 68.2 million
  • Population growth: 0.32%
  • Urban %: 60.4%
  • Urban growth: 2.97%
  • GDP: $1.108 trillion
  • GDP growth: 2.8%
  • GDP per capita: $16,100
  • Less  than 1% unemployment rate due to large portion in subsistence farming.
  • Heavily export dependent economy, with exports accounting for 2/3 of GDP.
  • Tepid economic growth following a recession after the military coup.

Trade and market Share Issues

  • Marked improvement in DDGS exports due to high energy ingredient prices.
  • Increased imports of feed wheat puts focus on mycotoxins in DDGS.
  • Reliance on EU poultry exports gives buyers concern over antibiotic residue.
  • Feed industry dominated by large, sophisticated buyers.
  • Home to one of the world’s leading feed producers, Charoen Pokphand.
  • DDGS imports up 122%, year over year.

Policy Issues

  • Trade distorting import tariff differential between DDGS (9%) and SBM (2%).
  • 54,700 MT corn TRQ with 20% in quota and 73% out of quota tariffs.
  • Military junta still controls the country after coup d’état.
  • Government clamping down on free flow of feed wheat.
  • Government’s promotion of ethanol as a replacement for MTBE is successful.
  • Seen as a global leader in higher level ethanol blends.