Supply/Demand Basics
-Coarse grains demand of 14 MMT/ year – 98% imported: 78% for feed, 16% corn milling, 6% alcohol and others
-#6 import market of U.S. corn in MY 2022/2023
-#2 import market of U.S. DDGS in MY 22022/2023.
-#4 import market of U.S. ethanol in MY 2022/2023.
-The livestock industry and compound feed market growing marginally.
Country Overview
-Asia’s 4th and world’s 13th largest economy.
-Facing sluggish domestic demand, low youth unemployment, falling birth rates, and an aging population.
Trade and Market Share Overview
-U.S. corn market share has fallen to its lowestsince 2013 due to weaker price competitiveness.
-The feed industry prefers South American corn even at a $2-3 premium due to BCFM issues.
-Market share of US DDGS declines slightly due to increased imports from Brazil and Australia.
-Due to weakening price competitiveness and decreased consumption of U.S. ethanol, imports decreased significantly.
-U.S. barley Imports increased due to the promotion of U.S. barley’s functionality and health claims.
Policy Overview
-MOTIE promoted the SAF demonstrationproject in 2023, but no progress in the ethanol pilot supply project.
– SAF: Introduce in 2026 through a demonstration project (2023-24)
– Fuel ethanol: Pilot distribution for public vehicles and pilot gas stations (2024-25)
-Through the efforts of the council, the MFDS raised the IT of malathion to 2.0 ppm in 2023, resolving obstacles of U.S. food grade cornexports.
-MOTIE is in the process of revising the LMO Act to exempt low-risk NBT from safety review through the prior review system.
