Supply/Demand Basics

  • #5 import market for U.S. corn in MY 2017/2018.
  • Total corn demand is around 4.8 MMT, of which 3.4 MMT is imported.
  • 70% of YC goes toward chicken feed to supply its 1,000 plus poultry farms.
  • Chicken meat production growth 8.5%, 1.6 MMT of poultry meat commercial produced.
  • DDGS imports continue to grow. Although the dairy sector is the largest user, the largest poultry producer began to consume DDGS again in 2018.
  • Public transportation is turning to natural gas reducing the demand for E7.8 gasoline.

Country Overview

  • Population / growth: 32.6 million / 0.95 %
  • Urban % / growth: 79.2% / 1.57%
  • GDP / growth: $449.1 billion / 2.7%
  • GDP per capita: $13,962
  • One of the region’s fastest-growing economies. Between 2002 and 2013, annual growth rate averaged 6.1 percent. From 2014 – 2017, annual growth rate averaged 3.1 percent, especially as a result of the fall in the international price of minerals and metals, including copper, Peru’s main export product.

Trade and Market Share Issues

  • U.S.- Peru are currently in 11th year of FTA.
  • U.S. corn will receive duty free TRQ for 895 TMT in 2019. This is the last year of a TRQ. In 2020, corn will have full access tariff free.
  • Poultry is primary protein source. Per-capita consumption has grown at an annual average rate of 6.5 percent for the last ten years.
  • U.S ethanol imports are duty free under the FTA. Fuel ethanol imports are mainly from the U.S. due to price competitiveness.

Policy Issues

  • Just 19 months into his five-year term, President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, resigned in March 2018 over corruption-related scandals. Vice President Martín Vizcarra took the office and will serve the remaining time of the mandate. Corruption scandals continue to be a major issue in the country.
  • Following the Countervailing Duty (CVD) case against U.S. ethanol, Peru initiated a CVD case against U.S. corn. Case is currently under investigation period. The case may be ruled on by the second semester of 2019.
  • The CVD case against U.S. ethanol was ruled on in November 2018, imposing a $0.14/gallon CVD to U.S. ethanol. The U.S. appealed the decision.