Japan

Supply/Demand Basics

Corn use: feed 75%; starch 24%; other food use 1%.
#2 import market for U.S. corn and U.S. barley, #5 for U.S. sorghum in MY 2018/2019.
Feed grain imports gradually declining to 12-15 MMT/year from 16 MMT/year.
Japan imported 560 TMT of U.S. DDGS in MY2018/2019.
Dry milling sector’s U.S. corn market share keeps 100% in MY 2018/2019.

Population / growth: 127 million / -0.2%
Urban % / growth: 94.3% / 0.15%
GDP / growth: $5.4 trillion / 1.5%
GDP per capita: $42,700
Large government debt and stagnant economy; highly subsidized, small agricultural sector; dependent on imported raw materials and fuels.
Prime Minister Abe holds the Prime Minister position for the seventh year, the second longest after the war.

Aging population and changing consumer preferences mean little growth in total food demand.
High health consciousness with relatively high income has led to demand for health-oriented, value-added foods.
Still committed to buying from U.S. (volume, reliability, origination investments), however Japanese industry beginning to diversify sources of feed ingredient imports.
216 million gallons of ethanol blended as ETBE, at 2% blend rate. The U.S. can hold up to 44% market share.

U.S.-Japan bilateral trade agreement should be taken as a trigger to revitalize agricultural policy and trade establishment.
Biotech approval system, while functioning, may not have capacity to handle accelerating applications.
Japan’s biofuel policy has allowed U.S. bioethanol since 2018.There is a ceiling for the U.S. bioethanol market share at 44.4% due to GHG emission reduction requirement.