Supply/Demand Basics
- Corn use: feed 75%; starch 24%; other food use 1%
- #3 import market for U.S. corn and U.S. barley in MY 2020/2021.
- Feed grain imports remain stable at 16 to 17 MMT/year.
- Japan imported 457 TMT of U.S. DDGS in MY 2020/2021.
- Dry milling sector’s U.S. corn market share stays at 100% in MY 2020/2021.
Country Overview
- Large government debt and stagnant economy impacted further by COVID-19.
- Highly subsidized, small agricultural sector; dependent on imported raw materials and fuels.
- New Prime Minister Fumio Kishida took office in 2021.
Trade and Market Share Overview
- Aging population and changing consumer preferences mean little growth in total food demand.
- High health consciousness with relatively high income has led to demand for health-oriented, value-added foods.
- Still committed to buying from U.S. (volume, reliability, origination investments), however Japanese industry beginning to diversify sources of feed ingredient imports.
- 217 million gallons of ethanol blended as ETBE, at 1.9% blend rate. The United States can capture up to 66% market share.
Policy Overview
- U.S.-Japan bilateral trade agreement negotiation should go into Phase 2 for more favorable treatment of agricultural products.
- Biotech regulatory system both on genetic engineering and PBI is reasonably science based, while may need further simplification.
- Japan’s biofuel policy has allowed U.S. bioethanol market share at a maximum of 66% due to GHG emission reduction requirement.
