Supply/Demand Basics
- Corn use: feed 75%; starch 24%; other food use 1%.
- #2 import market for U.S. corn; #3 for U.S. barley and #3 for U.S. sorghum in 2016/2017.
- Feed grain imports gradually declining to 12-15 MMT/year from 16 MMT/year.
- Japan imported 428,000 MT of U.S. DDGS in 2016/2017.
- Dry milling sector is #1 end-user of hard endosperm corn; U.S. market share 95% in 2016.
Country Overview
- Population / growth: 0 million / -0.13%
- Urban % / growth: 93% / 0.15%
- GDP / growth: $5.4 trillion / 0%
- GDP per capita: $42,700
- Large government debt and stagnant economy; highly subsidized, small agricultural sector; dependent on imported raw materials and fuels.
- Prime Minister Abe’s Abenomics stimulates economy but not does not specifically benefit import-oriented industries including feed industry.
Trade and Market Share Issues
- Aging population and changing consumer preferences mean little growth in total food demand.
- High health consciousness with relatively high income has led to demand for health-oriented, value-added foods.
- Still committed to buying from U.S. (volume, reliability, origination investments), however Japanese industry beginning to diversify sources of feed ingredient imports.
Policy Issues
- Trade agreements should be taken as a trigger to revitalize agricultural policy and trade establishment.
- Biotech approval system, while functioning, may not have capacity to handle accelerating applications.
- Japan is reviewing its energy policy in 2018 the market may open for the use of US ethanol in the form of ETBE.
