Supply/Demand Basics
- Largest importer of CGM in the world. 148 TMT from U.S. in MY 2015.
- Huge discrepancy between official corn production (20 MMT) and USDA (9.6 MMT).
- Feed mill production capacity of 22 MMT.
- Current feed mill capacity utilization of around 70-80%.
Country Overview
- Population: 258.3 million
- Population growth: 0.89%
- Urban: 53.7%
- Urban % growth: 2.69%
- GDP: $2.842 trillion
- GDP growth: 4.8%
- GDP per capita: $11,100
- Archipelago consisting of 17,500 islands creates massive infrastructure difficulties.
- 87% Muslim population, making it the largest Muslim country in the world.
- Median age of 29 years old.
- Fourth largest country in the world by population.
Trade and Market Share Issues
- The Indonesian president has announced he wishes to end all corn imports by 2018.
- Industry consists of 83% poultry feed and 11% aquaculture feed.
- U.S. corn suffers from poor freight spreads and poor quality from tropical conditions.
- Low poultry consumption 6.3 kgs/capita vs. Malaysia of 41 kgs/capita.
- Rampant swings in day-old chick prices leave boom/bust poultry operating environment.
Policy Issues
- Government restricting feed millers’ access to imports.
- BULOG (central desk) to hold national monopoly on corn importing.
- U.S. & NZ launched a WTO panel into Indonesia’s self-sufficiency plans.
- Moratorium on closed poultry houses intended to suspend development by large MNC and favor local businesses.
