Supply/Demand Basics

  • Largest importer of CGM in the world. 148 TMT from U.S. in MY 2015.
  • Huge discrepancy between official corn production (20 MMT) and USDA (9.6 MMT).
  • Feed mill production capacity of 22 MMT.
  • Current feed mill capacity utilization of around 70-80%.

Country Overview

  • Population: 258.3 million
  • Population growth: 0.89%
  • Urban: 53.7%
  • Urban % growth: 2.69%
  • GDP: $2.842 trillion
  • GDP growth: 4.8%
  • GDP per capita: $11,100
  • Archipelago consisting of 17,500 islands creates massive infrastructure difficulties.
  • 87% Muslim population, making it the largest Muslim country in the world.
  • Median age of 29 years old.
  • Fourth largest country in the world by population.

Trade and Market Share Issues

  • The Indonesian president has announced he wishes to end all corn imports by 2018.
  • Industry consists of 83% poultry feed and 11% aquaculture feed.
  • U.S. corn suffers from poor freight spreads and poor quality from tropical conditions.
  • Low poultry consumption 6.3 kgs/capita vs. Malaysia of 41 kgs/capita.
  • Rampant swings in day-old chick prices leave boom/bust poultry operating environment.

Policy Issues

  • Government restricting feed millers’ access to imports.
  • BULOG (central desk) to hold national monopoly on corn importing.
  • U.S. & NZ launched a WTO panel into Indonesia’s self-sufficiency plans.
  • Moratorium on closed poultry houses intended to suspend development by large MNC and favor local businesses.