Supply/Demand Basics
- Top importer of CGM. 235,000 MT from U.S. in 2016/2017.
- Huge discrepancy between official corn production (20 MMT) and USDA (9.6 MMT).
- Feed mill production capacity of 20 MMT with 23.5 MMT expected in 2018.
- Current feed mill capacity utilization of around 70-80%.
Country Overview
- Population / growth: 263 million / 1.3%
- Urban / growth: 55% / 2.5%
- GDP / growth: $3.2 trillion / 5.2%
- GDP per capita: $12,400
- Archipelago consisting of 17,500 islands creates massive infrastructure difficulties.
- 87% Muslim population, making it the largest Muslim country in the world.
- Median age of 29 years old.
- Fourth largest country in the world by population.
Trade and Market Share Issues
- Currency depreciation has eroded purchasing power.
- Feed industry consists of 83% poultry feed and 11% aquaculture feed.
- Corn suffers from strict import barriers, primarily for animal feed.
- Low poultry consumption 7 kgs/capita vs. Malaysia of 42 kgs/capita.
- Rampant swings in day-old chick prices leave boom/bust poultry operating environment.
Policy Issues
- Government restricting feed millers’ access to imported corn and sorghum.
- Government limiting corn imports to less than 640,000 MT in 2017.
- BULOG (central desk) to hold national monopoly on corn importing.
- Tariffs: 0% Corn, 5% CGM/CGF/DDGS, 30% Ethanol.
- ASEAN member / TPP participant.
