India

Supply/Demand Basics

  • World’s fifth largest feed producer (after China, U.S., Brazil, Mexico) with average growth of 9% per year.
  • World’s largest dairy herd, third largest broiler producer and fourth largest egg producer.
  • Big swings in monsoon weather create production risk and stifle investment.
  • Large and sophisticated starch sector that caters to India’s textile industry, as well as pharma and food sector.

Country Overview

  • Population / growth: 1.354 billion / 1.12%
  • Urban / growth: 33.5% / 2.5%, 42% 2020
  • GDP / growth: $10,385 trillion / 7.3%
  • GDP per capita (PPP): $7,783 (estimated)
  • One of the most densely populated country. Predicted to be the most populous by 2024. 53% of the populations is under the age of 30.
  • India’s passenger vehicles market will be third largest in 2021 and India aims to reduce carbon footprint by 30-35% by 2030.

Trade and Market Share Issues

  • Industrial corn/starch industry expected to grow by 8% to almost 4.5 MMT.
  • Allows use of domestically produced ethanol for blending in fuel.
  • Potable alcohol industry consumes around 1.25 MMT of grains and rising.
  • Fourth largest importer of U.S. industrial grade ethanol – 94% of the market share.
  • World’s worst air quality is creating momentum for more fuel ethanol blending.
  • National corn yields exceptionally low at 2.5 mt/ha, Major damage due to Fall Army worm in 2018 crop.

Policy Issues

  • Bt cotton and cotton seed meal is widely accepted and adopted. Imported co- products from GM crops not approved for feed use.
  • Corn import TRQ allocations (500tmt) are slow and ineffective, 60% out of quota duty.
  • Currently illegal to blend imported ethanol into fuel.