India - U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL

Supply/Demand Basics

India exported 3.3 MMT of corn in 2022/2023.
Corn supplies, which were expected to hit a shortfall by 2026 due to the ethanol blending program will likely be realized in 2024, as more corn is diverted to ethanol to ensure stable sugar prices.
Poultry feed demand has been growing by 7 to 8% over the past few years, and 20 MMT of corn went to poultry feed in 2023.
153 TMT imports of barley in 2023/2024 for malt to fulfill the demand for malt beverages and beer.
Industrial chemical sector is expected to grow by 10% per year and move to green chemicals in near future, pending feedstock availability.

US-India trade policy remains unsettled without the restoration of GSP. This will be a focus for India in 2024 after the April/May 2024 national elections.
Focus on biofuels remains and investments focus on making biofuels from grains, 131 new projects are coming online, which would need 9 MMT of grains, which India does not have.
India founded the Global Biofuels Alliance with the U.S., Brazil, and seven other nations.

Usually a top five ethanol market, India remains an importer of U.S. ethanol.
In 2023, the national average blend rate was 11.72%, against the GOI target of 12%.
GOI is has advanced the E20 blend mandate to 2025/2026, despite being unable to import fuel ethanol and a lack of feedstocks to achieve their goal. Without action, blending rates are expected to fall to under 10% in 2024.
The government’s announcement to use grains for ethanol production is pushing the starch and feed industries to look for imported corn.
Sustainable aviation fuel mandates are at 1% by 2027 and will move up to 20-30% in the future.

India does not allow the use of GM seeds in any crop, except cotton. Due to looming feedstock shortages, the feed, starch, and ethanol industries have been asking for a ban on exports of corn, lowering corn tariffs, and GM corn market access for both sowing and import.
GM Mustard for planting has been allowed by GEAC and is pending a final nod from the court. GOI is keen that Mustard and other GM crops should see the light of day. CRISPR technology is not part of the GM law.