Supply/Demand Basics

  • #4 export market for U.S. corn in MY2017/18. 97 percent U.S. market share.
  • #15 export market for DDGS. 100 percent U.S. market share.
  • #7 export market for CGM/CGF. CGM widely used in poultry diets.
  • Three companies dominate feed market with vertically integrated operations.
  • 7 sugar millers produce 480 million liters of ethanol per year for E10 blend mandate.

Country Overview

  • Population 45.5 million (2018 census)
  • Urban % / growth: 77% / 1.47%
  • GDP / growth: $747.0 billion / 1.7%
  • GDP per capita: $14,992
  • Colombia depends heavily on energy and mining exports, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in commodities prices.
  • President-elect Ivan Duque took office in August 2018, will serve until 2022. U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo met with Duque in January 2019, highlighting the benefits of U.S.-Colombia TPA for U.S. agriculture.
  • Economic gains are expected in 2019, powered by higher oil prices, increased investment in the extractives sector and an upturn in domestic demand.

Trade and Market Share Issues

  • 8th year of U.S.-Colombia FTA. In 2023, U.S. corn, sorghum TRQs will phase out.
  • Steady growth in protein consumption as result of urbanization, strong consumption- oriented campaigns by poultry and swine industry associations.
  • Therefore, biggest growth potential for feed grains are the poultry and swine sectors.
  • Corn imports projected to continue to grow; USGC projects 8 MMT by 2030.
  • U.S. ethanol exports reached a record 42 million gallons in MY 2017/2018 driven by price competitiveness and a raised mandate to E10.

Policy Issues

  • Non-tariff barriers on U.S. ethanol through regulations that established a maximum footprint limit associated with the GHG inventory for ethanol and quality standards.
  • Colombian sugar millers’ association maintains close relationship with government and has put pressure to set policies to protect local biofuels production.
  • U.S. corn demand growth continues due to policies under FTA that maintain low import duties. However, South American corn, subject to the Andean Price Band System, may be competitive when futures are close.
  • Risk of a CVD case for corn to develop if a case against U.S. ethanol moves forward.