Supply/Demand Basics

  • #3 export market for U.S. corn in MY2018/19. 82 percent U.S. market share.
  • #15 export market for DDGS. 100 percent U.S. market share.
  • #7 export market for CGM/CGF. CGM widely used in poultry diets.
  • Three companies dominate feed market with vertically integrated operations.
  • 7 sugar millers produce 490 million liters of ethanol per year for E10 blend mandate.

Country Overview

  • Population 48.2 million
  • Urban % / growth: 81% / 1.08%
  • GDP / growth: $657 billion / 2.1%
  • GDP per capita: $13,508
  • Colombia depends heavily on energy and mining exports, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in commodities prices.
  • President Duque had a challenging 2019 with a disapproval rate of 69%, social protests in major cities, and difficulty getting approval of his reforms in Congress.
  • The Colombian economy is expected to grow 3.6% in 2020, powered by infrastructure projects and Venezuelan migration, which supports growing domestic consumption.

Trade and Market Share Overview

  • 9th year of U.S.-Colombia FTA. U.S. corn, sorghum TRQs will phase out in 2023
  • Steady growth in protein consumption as result of urbanization, strong consumption-oriented campaigns by poultry and swine industry associations.
  • Corn imports projected to continue to grow; USGC projects 8 MMT by 2030. During 2019 South American corn, subject to the Andean Price Band System, was more competitive than the U.S. for the second semester shipments.
  • U.S. ethanol exports reached a record 69 million gallons in MY 2018/2019 driven by price competitiveness and higher demand in the northern region.

Policy Overview

  • Permanent pressure from Colombian sugar millers to reduce U.S. imports, including a countervailing duty (CVD) case against U.S. ethanol, a draft regulation on price-setting for imported ethanol, stringent quality standards and a maximum footprint limit associated with the GHG inventory for ethanol.
  • The Colombian cereals growers’ federation (FENALCE) actively sought different initiatives that seek to affect U.S. corn trade. None have affected trade.