- World’s 2nd largest corn producer and consumer.
- World’s largest swine, aqua, egg, beer, and distilled sprit producer, 2nd largest poultry meat and corn ethanol producer and growing dairy and beef producer.
- World’s largest sorghum importer in recent years; DDGS imports restricted by AD/CVD rules. Corn and sorghum imports gain from Phase One trade deal. Record corn and barley imports in CY 2021
- Though slowdown in some sectors, China’s overall economy recovered quickly from the previous year. GDP growth project at 5.3% in 2022 by IMF.
- Urban residents consume more animal protein than their rural counterparts. Urbanization is expected to grow from 60% to over 70% in the next 5 years.
- Corn feed demand has reduced somehow in recent years due to a relatively high corn prices and other feed substitutes such as feed barley, wheat and rice.
- Overall feed demand continues to expand amid China’s economic growth, which is less impacted by COVID-19 as compared with other economies.
Trade and Market Share Overview
- China is again the largest importer of U.S. coarse grains (corn & sorghum) in MY 2020/2021 and carries the largest amount of U.S. corn forward contracted for MY 2021/2022.
- Imports of U.S. ethanol are subject to a 15 percent (232 tariff) that was not exempted in the Phase One deal, as well as a 30 percent tariff (the WTO bound rate) re-imposed at the end of 2016.
- DDGS exports still affected by AD/CV duties, but other constraints are addressed in Phase One deal.
- A protocol for U.S. barley imports was completed in 2020; Minimal import was seen in 2021.
- While trade tension/uncertainties remain, the Phase One trade deal reduced tariffs and resolved many of the non-tariff barriers to exports, including the required GMO processing certificates and TRQ management for corn, the DDGS plant import licenses, and export facility registrations, and resulted in a U.S. barley export protocol.
- China scaled back its commitment to using E10 nationwide by 2020 due to reduced corn inventories, but there are still opportunities to advocate for low-carbon and renewable fuel benefits of E10.
- Sell-sufficiency remains a focus in China’s grain and trade policies, China is also looking for reliable and stable grain/oilseed suppliers. State trading is expected to play an increasing role in the coming years in grain trade.