Country News
Algeria: The government tendered for 50 KMT of feed barley for October delivery. (AgriCensus)
Argentina: According to export licenses and private company declarations, barley sales to China will be 250 KMT this year and a record 380 KMT in 2021. Argentine suppliers are supplanting Australia’s amid a Middle Kingdom/Down Under political spat. (Reuters)
Brazil: Arc Mercosul estimates the 2019/20 second season corn harvest to be 88.5 percent complete, versus the long-term average of 90.4 percent. The weak currency makes exports attractive but corn sales in August were 6.48 MMT, versus 7.3 MMT last season.
Canada: Feed barley prices have been under seasonal downward pressure as the new crop nears harvest and the Department of Agriculture and Agri-Food has raised its forecasted output by 470 KMT to 10.3 MMT. StatsCan says it will be even larger than that and will enable more sizeable exports. The agency says oat production will be 4.5 MMT, a 6 percent increase over last year and well above the five-year average of 3.6 MMT. (FarmLead; World Grain)
China: Corn futures prices have been slow in dropping out of concern the crop is being damaged by frequent typhoons, plus the spread of Fall Armyworm (FAW) to 35 percent of China’s northern corn fields. The FAW infestation arrived 10 days earlier than last year and affects a region where 70 percent of China’s corn is grown. By contrast, the spot price has fallen for three straight weeks, under downward pressure due to imports and more than 30 MMT of auctioned corn waiting to be delivered. Both prices and the amount of corn purchased has been dropping at the government’s reserve auction sales. Just 33.6 percent of the corn offered this week was successfully bid. Still, there are fears about food security problems and a potential 30 to 50 MMT corn shortfall.
Separately and amid otherwise strained bilateral relations, China’s General Administration of Customs placed a ban on barley imports from Australia’s largest grain exporter, CBH Grain, claiming to find pests on multiple occasions. Australian growers will sell elsewhere and may plant less next year. (JCI; Gro; Refinitiv; Reuters)
EU: The corn production forecast was lowered by 2.4 MMT with both Romania and France hurt by the weather. Romania’s maize crop could fall by 40 percent due to drought, down to 10.2 MMT. Meanwhile, rising corn prices in Chicago futures has caused Brussels to move the maize and sorghum import tariff back to zero. (AgriCensus; Reuters)
Ukraine: APK-Inform reduced its forecasted corn harvest by 8 percent to 35 MMT due to unfavorable weather. Corn exports were forecast by the ministry at 26 MMT for 2020/21, with barley adding another 3.3 MMT in foreign sales. Corn exports thus far this season are 603 KMT, versus 1.85 MMT the same date last year. Corn pricing has added $7 to $9/ton due to lower production. However, year to date barley exports are above levels in 2019. (AgriCensus; Refinitiv)