Market Perspectives – October 28, 2021

Country News

Argentina: Improving weather and price incentives will push corn production to a record 54.5 MMT and exports have been raised by 2 MMT to 40 MMT. That could possibly enable the country to become the world’s second largest corn exporter, causing Brazil to slip to third place. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says that corn crop sowing is 26. 3 percent complete. (FAS GAIN; AgriCensus)

Australia: The barley industry is targeting exports into Africa, and particularly Ethiopia in the Horn region where malt is needed for a robust beer industry. There is also a planned campaign into the Americas with the targets being Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. (AEGIC)

Brazil: Deral reports that 93 percent of the Paraná corn crop has been planted. Overall, first crop corn sowing in the country is at 53 percent but some are advising farmers to plant without fertilizer due to its high cost. AgRural says corn plantings are now above the five-year average. Corn imports have eased slightly, and exports increased a bit as domestic prices have eased a little. (AgriCensus; SPGlobal)

China: The weekly wheat auction remains popular to feed producers due to the high price of corn. Dalian futures keep corn priced at over the equivalent of $10.47/bushel. That is its highest level since last March and the January 2022 contract hit one million contracts in volume. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Colombia: Corn consumption will grow by 2.7 percent to 7.5 MMT as animal feed use by poultry producers rises. USDA notes domestic corn production will increase 4.8 percent to 1.5 MMT. (FeedNavigator)

EU: France’s corn crop condition is rated at 89 percent good/excellent but the grower group AGPM is advising farmers to leave the crop in the field because high as energy prices make it too expensive to harvest wet and mechanically dry down. (Bloomberg; AgriCensus)

Russia: SoveEcon reports that barley and corn exports were lower in October as the campaign winds down. The export tax on corn was raised by $1.30 to $49.70/MT but the one on barley was lowered. (Reuters)

South Africa: The Crop Estimates Committee says the corn crop will be 16.21 MMT. (AgriCensus)

Taiwan: MFIG procured 65 KMT of Argentine corn for January delivery. (AgriCensus)

Tunisia: The government agency ODC bought 50 KMT of barley in a tender. (AgriCensus)

Turkey: The government agency TMO procured 235 KMT of barley for December delivery as the barley production forecast for 2021/22 was cut. Climate change is causing the nation’s lakes to dry up, but farmers are digging hundreds of illegal wells in order to grow water thirsty crops like corn. (Bloomberg; AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The advisory group ProAgro says gas prices are too high and so farmers will leave their corn crop in the field to dry naturally but due to the risk of fungal problems like fusarium developing, large companies are choosing to pay high gas prices and dry down the harvested grain. (Bloomberg)