Chicago Board of Trade Market News
Outlook: The price action of corn contracts during the past week seems to indicate that there is a lack of interest among traders in building larger short positions at lower price levels. Rather, traders holding sizable short positions in corn would presumably like to force a capitulation by their counterparts holding long positions so that their exiting will create an opportunity for sellers to reduce the number of contracts held. The individuals holding short positions in corn apparently recognize that the rate of corn export sales has been lagging throughout the beginning of the current 2015/16 season, and yet there is not much give even when they press prices into new lows. Rather, there is sufficient buying of corn futures contracts to constrain the size of moves into new lows, and basis in the cash market is firming. This is not a composite of conditions that builds confidence in pressing prices lower. As a result, the outlook is that sellers are likely to reduce their activities at current levels and consider resumption of selling at higher prices. Such actions could allow for a limited bounce in corn contracts even when fundamental justification appears to be lacking.