Chicago Board of Trade Market News
The prospect of ideal weather in both North and South America would presumably have more of a neutral than bearish effect on prices, since harvest is already delayed in the U.S. and corn acreage is expected to be down in South America. The likelihood that rain delays could cause some South America acreage to transition back from soybeans into corn seems limited because of the tight financial resources of farmers, particularly in Argentina. More than likely, rain delays will just result in less total planted acreage.
Export sales normally pick up as harvest reaches the halfway point during seasons of abundant production. The size of buyer volume also tends to increase as a downward trend levels off into a trading range, which appears to be the dynamic that is presently unfolding. Large export sales announcements of corn are expected to become increasingly prevalent from now until year’s end.
Speculative traders with large short position will presumably watch the preceding event materialize and increasingly decide to take profits. The action of buying back their short positions could cause basis to weaken, an event that could frustrate producers. Unfavorable basis can slow the marketing pace of U.S. farmers; they may decide to wait and see if an issue, such as South American weather, produces a limited bounce in prices to utilize as a selling opportunity.