Market Perspectives – October 11, 2018

Country News

Brazil: CONAB predicts a substantial increase in corn production in 2018/19, and more exports as well. Total production (first and second crops) is forecast at 89.73 to 91.08 MMT, up from 80.78 MMT in 2017/18. Corn exports will be 31 MMT, versus 25.5 MMT in 2017/18. (Reuters)

China: The Agriculture Ministry cancelled the October issuance of a Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate due to what it termed a technical problem. The state-approved China Feed Industry Association is proposing to cut the ratio of soybean meal in pig rations, which could impact utilization of corn and other ingredients. (Reuters)

France: A dry September enabled corn harvesting to double to 42 percent. The maize production estimate for October is 11.498 MMT, down from 11.676 MMT a month ago. Meanwhile, EU corn imports are surging. (FranceAgriMer; AgriCensus)

Mexico: According to the Grupo Consultor de Mercados (GCMA), higher prices on sorghum have imports at 174 KMT in 2018, down 58 percent from the 419 KMT imported in 2017. (AgriCensus)

Russia: The government will auction 1.5 MMT of stockpiled grain, including barley, to try and put down domestic food inflation. The stocks are from 2008-2016 and generally located in the north so logistically and quality-wise are unlikely to make their way into the export market. However, Jordan has purchased a panamax of Russian barley. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: A promising export campaign has been stymied as Argentina and the U.S. outcompete South Africa on price. South African FOB prices are $198/MT for December, a $22/MT premium when poorer logistics and quality suggest instead a discount is needed. (AgriCensus)

Taiwan: The Maize Industry Procurement Association (formerly MFIG) purchased 65 KMT of U.S. and Brazilian corn at 4 percent lower cost. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Barley exports are down 38 percent and railway bottlenecks are stifling corn exports. (AgriCensus; USDA)