Market Perspectives – November 12, 2020

Ocean Freight Comments

Transportation and Export Report: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Commodity Consulting: This week bullish paper traders made a valent but losing effort to support Dry-Bulk index values. Soft Capesize cargo demand, however, kept sellers motivated and it was sellers who prevailed as values continued to slide.

Paper traders and vessel owners are hoping that markets have formed a bottom and that the overall situation will soon improve. It should be noted, however, that the fourth quarter tends to be a soft and defensive period for ocean freight markets. The only sector bucking this trend is the containerized market. Surprisingly, U.S. demand for consumer goods from China has been extraordinarily strong and there is even a shortage of containers for both east- and west-bound movements. Average Q1 2021 daily earnings for Dry-bulk Panamax vessels dropped to $8,000/day this week.