Market Perspectives – May 6, 2021

Country News

Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 22 percent of the country’s corn has been harvest, down from the five-year average of 32 percent. It also says the barley production area for 2021/22 will be 1.15 million hectares, an increase of 28 percent. The corn harvest is slow and so is farmer selling as they prioritize the soybean crop, which itself is behind average harvesting. The International Grains Council raised its estimate of the Argentine corn crop by 5.3 percent to 59.3 MMT. Water levels are low and now the death of the minister in charge of dredging the Parana River is believed to slow the contracting for continued operations. (Bloomberg; AgriCensus; Reuters)

Brazil: The consultancy Safras & Mercado forecasts the 2020/21 corn crop at 104.128 MMT, a 7.6 percent cut from the previous estimate. StoneX lowered its estimate of the crop to 100.25 MMT, a 4.6 percent reduction from a month ago. IMEA reduced its forecast of the Mato Grosso corn crop by 1 percent from a month ago and Deral cut its estimate for the corn crop in Parana by 8.5 percent. The ANEC export association said that good conditions in Mato Grosso would enable corn exports to reach 32 MMT, just a 1.6 MMT reduction from 2020. The trade will be watching USDA’s 12 May WASDE for any reductions from its forecast of a 109 MMT Brazilian corn crop.

Helped by the low value of the Real, the government says April corn exports were 130 KMT, versus just 10 KMT a year ago. Corn exports for the year thus far are 23 percent higher with the major markets being Egypt, Vietnam and Iran. However, ANEC says there will likely be no corn exports in May. Corn prices are double their level of a year ago but the government plans to increase the amount of subsidized, low-interest loans that farmers can take out for producing more corn and sorghum. (Reuters; Soybean & Corn Advisor; AgriCensus)

China: Importers cancelled 140 KMT of corn orders for 2020/21 but the trade rumors are that China is looking for 2021/22 corn purchases. (Reuters)

EU: The International Grains Council raised its estimate of the EU corn crop by 3.6 percent to 67.5 MMT. (Reuters)

South Africa: The Crop Estimates Committee said the 2021/22 corn crop will hit 16 MMT. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: The Korean Feed Association privately purchased 65 KMT of corn at $319.35/MT C&F for November delivery. It also tendered for optional origin corn for August and October. Nonghyup Feed Inc. issued a tender for 276 KMT of corn. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Tunisia: In a tender for feed barley, ODC bought 50 KMT at $279/MT for June shipment. (Reuters)

Ukraine: SovEcon says that Ukraine will produce 36.6 MMT of corn this year based on an area of 5.3 million hectares and a yield of 6.9 MT/Ha. Corn exports for 2020/21 at 19.14 MMT are down. (World Grain)