Market Perspectives – May 5, 2022

Country News

Brazil: A surging La Niña has brought an early end to the monsoon and the safrinha corn crop is beginning to suffer. Mato Grosso has its driest April in 17 years. About 30-40 percent of the crop is already stressed and no rain is forecast for the next 10 days. Brazilian Agriculture Minister Marcos Montes says he has “no doubt that we will face a global food crisis.” (AgWeb)

China: The FAS attaché says China will import 24 MMT in 2021/22 and 20 MMT in 2022/23. Import options are being assessed since China has 5-6 MMT of previously purchased Ukrainian corn yet to be delivered and now Brazil’s output is threatened. MARA predicts corn imports will plummet in the coming years but forecasts imports above the 7.2 MMT TRQ level until 2027. This may indicate that China is very short of corn. (Leader Telegram; DimSum; AgriCensus)

Russia: The barley export tax was left almost steady for the May 6-12 period. (AgriCensus)

Taiwan: MFIG purchased 55 KMT of South African corn at premium of 219.79 U.S. cents/bushel C&F over September Chicago futures. (Refinitiv)

Thailand: Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit says measures will be taken to ensure feed supplies for May to July, including increasing the amount of imported corn allowed in without the 20 percent duty from 54,700 MT to 600 KMT. Black Sea grain supplies have been disrupted and up to 1.2 MMT of corn, wheat and barley may be procured during the three-month period. (Reuters)

Tunisia: Government agency ODC tendered for 75 KMT of barley for June/July delivery. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The first ship loaded with 71 KMT of Ukrainian corn has departed Romania’s Constanta port bound for Spain. It took three weeks to move that much grain via trains and barges, but the effort is expected to pick up pace. Ukraine also exported 567,991 MT of grain via rail but the higher logistics costs are impacting the trade. (Bloomberg; AgriCensus)

Zimbabwe: Erratic rainfall will cause a slump in the production of corn and other grains, but Deputy Agriculture Minister Vangelis Haritatos said, “We assure the nation that the food situation is our top priority and there will certainly not be any shortages.” The corn harvest is expected to fall 42.6 percent from 2.72 MMT last year to 1.56 MMT. The country also has 500 KMT of corn in reserves. (Bloomberg)