Market Perspectives – May 20, 2021

Country News

Argentina: Grain exports will be snarled by yet another port workers strike, this one lasting 48 hours. Farmer selling of corn has slowed. (Reuters)

Brazil: AgroConsult dropped its forecast of the safrinha corn crop by 15 percent to 66.2 MMT and its estimate of overall production at 91.1 MMT is the first time below 100 MMT since 2017/18. Corn prices remain elevated at Real 95/60-kg. bag. (Reuters)

China: The 2021/22 marketing year has yet to begin and China has already purchased 39 percent of its projected corn imports, all from the U.S. These are larger and earlier purchases than the ones made last year at this time China has booked 10.2 MMT of corn with more rumored to be in the works. Total new crop corn export commitments are at 12 MMT roughly three months ahead of last year’s pace, and total imports could reach 30 MMT. This despite a 4.3 percent increase in corn output. China could cancel some old crop commitments. China had purchased 4.1 MMT of corn from Ukraine but with a smaller crop this year Kiev’s exports are down 25 percent. (Reuters; SPGlobal)

EU: Grain trade association Coceral forecast barley output at 62.4 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 61.5 MMT but down from the 64 MMT achieved in 2020. The corn crop will be 65 MMT, up from the earlier guess of 63.5 MMT and above the 62.7 MMT a year ago. FranceAgriMer rated the spring barley crop at 85 percent good/excellent, up from 82 percent the previous week. (Reuters; World Grain)

South Africa: Dry weather is favorable to the maize harvest and a shipment was sold to Spain in an unusual seller-buyer transaction. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: The three largest feed mills booked a collective 263 KMT of corn. KFA purchased 65 KMT at $337.12/MT C&F plus $1.50/MT surcharge for additional port unloading. MFG bought 138 KMT at $331.99/MT C&F plus the $1/50/MT surcharge.  (Reuters)

Taiwan: MFIG bough 65 KMT of corn from Argentina for August delivery. (AgriCensus)