Chicago Board of Trade Market News
Outlook: USDA published their first estimates of 2015/16 crops in the May 12 WASDE report. U.S. ending stocks are expected to decline slightly for both corn and sorghum during the 2015/16 season, which will begin on September 1 for each of these crops.
The current 2014/15 season is forecast to close with U.S. ending stocks of corn at 1.851 billion bushels. The 2015/16 corn crop, that is currently being planted, is tentatively estimated to produce an average yield of 166.8 bushels per acre. This is a sizable yield, but down 4.2 bushels per acre from last year. Reduced yield and acreage is forecast to produce a smaller corn crop than last fall’s record, but that is basically offset by the sizable corn stocks that are being carried over from this season.
The comfortable carryover of feed grains reserves from this season into the 2015/16 crop year is anticipated to result in a slight increase in global supplies. However, USDA notes that this is dependent on both the United States and China each producing another large crop. The May WASDE specifically states that 90 percent of the variability in U.S. corn yields is determined by precipitation and temperatures during the month of July.