Market Perspectives – May 13, 2021

Country News

Argentina: The Rosario Grain Exchange says low water levels in the Parana River are causing some corn exports to be delayed or relocated to the country’s Atlantic ports. (Reuters)

Brazil: The share of the safrinha corn crop in the state of Parana considered in good condition dropped to 25 percent according to the State Secretariat of Agriculture and Supply. The volume of production in Parana was cut by 8.5 percent to 12.23 MMT. Deral says the quality of corn in Parana has fallen to just 25 percent rated good, versus 92 percent a month ago. AgRural cut its estimate for the overall Brazilian safrinha corn crop to 69.6 MMT from the 75.1 MMT achieved in 2020.  CONAB says the safrinha crop will be 79.7 MMT. Yields will be the lowest in three years. Full year production will be 95.5 MMT, down from 102.6 MMT last year. Some consultancies say total production could be as low as 93.5 MMT. (Reuters)

Canada: Surplus barley stocks as of 31 March were down 20.5 percent from a year earlier and totaled 2.8 MMT. Oat stocks were down 2.5 percent from a year ago and stood at 1.8 MMT. (Reuters)

China: China National Grain & Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) reports that corn acreage in 2021 will increase by 3.3 percent and output is seen rising 4.3 percent to 272 MMT. The increase will come at the expense of soybeans since its area of production is seen falling 6.9 percent. CNGOIC expects corn imports to fall to 20 MMT from the 28 MMT imported in 2020/21, but sorghum and barley imports will increase to 10 MMT each. That will be a 43 percent increase in sorghum imports and a 5.2 percent increase in barley imports. The consultancy CoFeed has stopped issuing its own statistical reports. (Reuters; Bloomberg)

EU: FranceAgriMer expects the area sown to maize to fall by 10 percent to 1.44 million hectares in 2021. The area planted to spring barley is estimated at 593,000 hectares, a 25 percent reduction from a year earlier. The area impacted by a late spring frost is expected to be limited. (Reuters)

South Africa: Sorghum production in 2021/22 will fall 16 percent to 160 KMT and imports will be 20 KMT. Production of sorghum will decline over the next ten years as producers switch to more profitable crops. (USDA GAIN)

South Korea: The Korean Feed Association (KFA) tendered to purchase 69 KMT of optional origin corn and passed on offers that were too high. Feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) tendered to purchase 276 KMT of corn on three consignments and purchased 275 KMT. (Reuters)

Ukraine: FOB corn prices are at a 10-year high and exports thus far in the July-June marketing year are 19.6 MMT, a more than 20 percent decline year on year. (AgriCensus)