Market Perspectives – May 12, 2022

Country News

Brazil: CONAB raised the 2021/22 corn crop estimate by 0.5 percent to 116.195 MMT with the current winter crop pegged at 87.097 MMT. However, others peg the crop at 118.7 MMT. At this juncture, 76 percent of the first corn crop has been harvested and the corn export estimate for 2021/22 was raised by 2.7 percent to 38 MMT. Spot prices have begun to ease as a bumper winter corn crop is expected but concerns about the impact of dryness remain. (Reuters; AgriCensus; S&P Global)

Canada: Higher feed demand in western Canada pushed corn imports 264 percent higher to 3.3 MMT. This in turn pushed stocks of corn higher by 13.9 percent, year over year, to 9.3 MMT as of March 31. On-farm stocks decreased 1.8 percent while commercial stocks rose 43.9 percent. Meanwhile, this year’s corn crop may be shrinking as a waterlogged spring may cause some farmers to switch to growing wheat. (Bloomberg; StatsCanada)

China: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs says China’s corn planted area in 2022/23 will be 42.52 million hectares, a 1.8 percent reduction from the previous year, but better yields will result in a slightly larger crop at 272.56 MMT. The Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) indicates corn imports in 2022/23 will be 18 MMT, versus 20 MMT a year earlier. (Reuters)

EU: Barley exports have slowed, and French farmers will slash the amount of corn they plant due to high fertilizer prices. Farmers will plant 1.46 million hectares of corn, a 6 percent reduction from last year. (The Edge Markets)

South Korea: KFA booked 130 KMT of corn in an ongoing buying spree. MFG tendered for 130 KMT of corn to arrive in July and together with FLC paid $384.45/MT for corn to arrive in August. (AgriCensus)

Tunisia: Government agency ODC booked 75 KMT of barley for June-July delivery. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The sowing of spring crops has reached 60 percent completion. (AgriCensus)