Market Perspectives – May 10, 2018

Country News

Argentina: Heavy rain in recent days will not save thousands of acres that have been hurt by drought; instead, it is causing soggy conditions in fields. The Rosario trade chamber BCR says that bulk carriers will load over one million tons of corn at Argentine ports during the month of May. USDA forecasts total Argentine corn exports at 25 MMT. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Brazil: Farmers have reduced the amount of corn they are offering as they wait to learn more about the outcome of the Safrinha (second) crop. AgroConsult sees second crop output at 60.2 MMT and area planted at 11.9 million hectares. That is 12 percent lower than last year’s crop and it could decline further. The dryness includes three weeks without rain in Paraná, but it may not impact exports. Meanwhile, a major poultry processor has halted production due to the double whammy of Europe’s import restriction and locally high feed costs. (AgriCensus; Reuters; ETF Trends)

China: China’s ninth corn auction since April 12 saw a further 3.1 MMT sold across the four principle corn-producing provinces. That was a better outcome than the 4 May auction at which just 49 percent of the 4 MMT offered were purchased. (AgriCensus)

Jordan: The country’s state grain buying agency had to pay 7 percent more for barley in the most recent purchase as tightened global supplies put upward pressure on prices. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: Abundant production is allowing South Africa to tempt Southeast Asian buyers with competitive pricing. Separately, malt barley farmers are challenging a major brewer before the Competition Tribunal for changing a pricing formula from paying them the equivalent of 102 percent of second tier wheat to instead basing it on 97 percent of the value of top grade wheat. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Ukraine: Farmers have lowered their price demands to $200/MT to try and tempt demand. Farmers have sown all of the 1.6 million hectares planned for barley and planted 3.3. million of a planned 4.6 million hectares for corn. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Zambia: At 2.39 MMT, maize production is seen declining 34 percent in the 2017/18 drought season from the prior year’s 3.61 MMT. However, with almost 850 KMT in carryover stocks, Agriculture Minister Michael Katambo says there will be sufficient corn for both human and animal use in 2018-19. (Bloomberg; Reuters)