Chicago Board of Trade Market News
Outlook: On Monday the USDA reported that the planting pace of U.S. corn was 95 percent complete, which was just about even with the five-year average rate of planting at 94 percent. Rains had caused the planting pace to slow more recently, but the fact that this season’s initial plantings began sooner-than-average has caused the current emergence rate of 84 percent to be above the five-year average of 79 percent and last seasons’ emergence rate of 77 percent. Early emergence can be beneficial if a crop is able to avoid the peak heat of summer. Of course, the period of peak heat varies each season by timing, length and intensity.
Last season the U.S. corn crop developed well right into a relatively wide window of pollination. Plants also benefited from a summer with little excessive heat and generally sufficient moisture to work through the increased stresses of the pollination period that allowed ears to mature with limited stress on plants. This season market participants will be anxiously keeping an eye how the young plants develop prior to pollination. Excessive moisture and insufficient heat units can also create stresses and impede plant development. The near-term outlook is that any form of persistent decline in the reported weekly average crop condition for U.S. corn during the next month will most likely result is some weather premium being purchased into corn contracts prior to pollination.