Market Perspectives – June 3, 2021

Country News

Argentina: The government’s ban on beef exports has created uncertainty in grains and a view that 8 percent of the corn area could switch to soybeans since the latter goes to domestic crush plants and is not at risk of export restrictions like corn. Around 72 percent of the corn is exported. The government is trying to isolate consumers from the global spike in food prices, but farmers say they are bearing the cost. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange sees farmers planting 1.3 million hectares of barley in 2021/22. Port workers have been striking and grain farmers say they may follow. Meanwhile, river logistics have been challenged by low water levels. (AgriCensus; Reuters)

Brazil: Emergency water supplies were released in five states and the government is considering issuing options contracts to encourage farmers to plant more corn instead of soybeans.  Due to a drought said to be the worst in 91 years, Safras pegged the corn crop at 95.2 MMT; Datagro sees the total crop at 101.65 MMT; StoneX is at 89.68 MMT; AgRural lowered its estimate of the safrinha corn crop by 5 MMT to 60 MMT and total production at 91 MMT. (Reuters)

China: Speculation as to a corn import restriction has not materialized in the trade data. (Reuters)

EU: Crop ratings for French barley edged back higher while dropping for corn. (AgriCensus)

Mexico: Despite drought conditions, the FAS attaché estimate of the corn crop was raised by 235 KMT to a total of 27.2 MMT, which is larger than last year’s 26.6 MMT but lower than USDA’s estimate of 28 MMT. The sorghum crop estimate is lowered from 4.3 MMT to 3.8 MMT. (FAS GAIN)

South Africa: The Crop Estimates Committee says maize production is 16.1 MMT. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The Agriculture Ministry says grain exports this season are down 22.3 percent year on year, with corn exports at 21.5 MMT and barley exports at 4.1 MMT. (Reuters)