Chicago Board of Trade Market News
Outlook: July corn futures are 3 cents (0.7 percent) lower than last Thursday’s close as long profit-taking has pushed the futures market off its recent highs. Technical support and continued uncertainty as to acreage figures prompted the market to move higher on Thursday, however. Midwest weather remains wet, challenging farmers’ efforts to finish planting intended acreage. Consequently, expectations for below-average yields and possible further reductions in planted/harvested acreage are keeping corn bulls emboldened for the time being.
On Monday, USDA noted 92 percent of the U.S. corn crop was planted. The statistics shows that the crop is still behind the five-year average pace but also that farmers made good progress last week. Seventy-nine percent of the crop is emerged, behind the five-year average of 97 percent. USDA noted 59 percent of the crop is rated good/excellent, steady with the prior week and slightly below the typical rating for this time of year.
The latest Export Sales report featured 143 KMT of gross sales and 38.4 KMT of net sales. Exports were down from the prior week at 640 KMT but were enough to keep YTD exports at 41.9 MMT. YTD exports are down 1 percent while YTD bookings (exports plus unshipped sales) are down 14 percent. Other report highlights include 3 KMT of sorghum exports and 600 MT of barley shipments.
U.S. interior cash prices are down fractionally from last week at $168.92/MT ($4.29/bushel) but are up 30 percent versus this same time last year. CIF NOLA values have fallen slightly while FOB Gulf values are steady with last week. FOB NOLA values ($215.25/MT) are 26 percent higher than this time last year.
From a technical standpoint, July and December corn futures are trending higher with Thursday’s move higher coming from trendline support. By some measures, bull markets tend to follow a cycle of five waves – three waves higher with two pullbacks in between – and December corn has completed at least one, if not two, waves higher. The implication is that the market still has room to move higher, based on technical analysis.
