Market Perspectives – June 13, 2014

Chicago Board of Trade Market News

USDA published the June WASDE on Wednesday June 11, and the data it contains is neutral for corn and other feed grains. However, corn futures continued to temporarily drift lower due to continued favorable weather forecasts and the influence of modestly bearish data for wheat that was in the WASDE. Corn contract have since stabilized and attempted to gain some traction in order to work higher. The outlook is that the downside in corn futures prices will remain limited from present levels until USDA’s Acreage Report is published on June 30 and weather for the period of pollination becomes more certain.

The June WASDE left 2014/15 ending stocks unchanged for corn, sorghum and barley. Even though current growing conditions are favorable, the projected corn U.S. yield remains at 165.3 bushels per acre due to the offsetting influence of a slower-than-normal start to corn planting that lasted into mid-May. Globally, the projection for coarse grain supplies for the 2014/15 season was increased by 2.3 MMT due to the anticipation of higher corn production and beginning stocks. It is interesting to note that corn production was increased for both Ukraine and Russia. While total planted corn acreage is down in Ukraine, USDA did raise the projected production for both Ukraine and Russia on expectations that yields will improve due to the importation of improved seed types. The June WASDE’s projections for global coarse grain trade remain basically unchanged from the May estimates. The result of such factors is the primary reason for the outlook of limited downside in current corn prices.