Market Perspectives – July 21, 2022

Country News

Brazil: Corn production (+8.6%) and exports (+5.6%) for the 2022/23 marketing year will set records. The Paranaqua Port Authority says that corn exports from Parana state have soared 221 percent during the first half of the year due to the absence of Ukraine from the market. Exports have totaled 1.9 MMT versus 591,538 MT during the same timeframe last year. By contrast, Ukrainian corn production is down over 40 percent and exports are expected to fall 62 percent. Agrural reports that the safrinha corn harvest is 53 percent complete. Safras says the Brazilian summer corn area would be larger except farmers decided to plant more soybeans. Corn exports to China are expected to start in 2023. (Reuters; USDA/FAS; AgriCensus)

China: Corn imports in June from both Ukraine and the U.S. were lower. At 2.21 MT, June corn imports were down 38 percent year on year. (AgriCensus)

EU: Searing heat could reduce European corn production by 8-10 MMT below USDA’s forecast of 68 MMT. The German farmers association DBV says the heatwave will impact spring barley, but the winter barley crop will be 9 MMT, up from 8.8 MMT last year. Romanian Agriculture Minister Petre Daea said corn exports would only be what was left after domestic consumption. Romania is Europe’s largest corn exporter and shipped 4.3 MMT last year. However, drought could reduce production this year by more than 40 percent to just 8 MMT. (Reuters; Bloomberg; AgriCensus)

Paraguay: The drought will cause corn exports in 2021/22 to fall by 40 percent over the previous year. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: Corn production is expected to reach 15.6 MMT in 2022/23, a 2 percent increase over the previous year. This will be the third consecutive year that corn production has exceeded 15 MMT. Corn production would be closer to the 17 MMT produced in 2020/21 if not for the higher cost of inputs. Exports are expected to be 2.5 MMT, up from 2.2 MMT. (USDA/FAS)

Ukraine: Weekly grain exports totaled 315,459 MT, which involved a doubling of the barley volume, but corn exports decreased. (AgriCensus)