Market Perspectives – July 20, 2023

Country News

Algeria: State agency ONAB tendered for 240 KMT of corn but is believed to have only purchased 40-80 KMT, likely of South American origin. Below average moisture caused the FAS attaché to lower its estimate for the barley crop by 27 percent to 1.02 MMT. The total consumption of barley is 1.75 MMT. (Refinitiv; FAS GAIN)

Australia: The government is disappointed that Beijing is extending its review of previous punitive tariffs on barley imports from Australia for another month. (Refinitiv)

Brazil: Deral says the Paraná corn harvest is 11 percent complete. IMEA reports the corn harvest in Mato Grosso is 68.2 percent completed. Conab documents the safrinha corn crop as 39.3 percent harvested overall. The consultancy Safras & Maercado raised its total corn crop forecast to 137.4 MMT. AgroConsult upped its second crop corn estimate by 4.5 percent to 107 MMT, plus increased its export forecast by 16 percent to 54.1 MMT with 5 MMT going to China. (Refinitiv; Reuters; AgriCensus)

China: Total corn production will be 1 percent higher this year at 280 MMT on favorable weather; consumption will be 0.3 percent higher at 305 MMT with corn imports up 11 percent from the April estimate at 20 MMT. There is an increased use of feed substitutes. (FAS GAIN)

Russia: The consultancy Sovecon estimates corn exports in July up 266 percent from a year ago to 550 KMT and barley exports up 150 percent to 500 KMT. Note that the Russia’s customs service stopped issuing trade data in April 2022 to avoid “speculation.” Russia suspended the Black Sea grain export agreement with Ukraine and instead targeted for destruction the latter’s export infrastructure. (Reuters)

Zambia: Corn production is set to surge as small and medium sized farmers have increased the amount of land they will sow with the crop. (FAS GAIN)