Market Perspectives – July 18, 2019

Country News

Argentina: The Rosario Board of Trade forecasts 2019/20 corn production will hit 51 MMT. USDA pegged it at 51 MMT but estimates may need to be raised further. Corn basis is under pressure as the harvest advances. (AgriCensus; FarmLead)

Australia: The barley crop will jump to 9.2 MMT on larger planted area. (USDA/FAS)

Brazil: The largest corn producing prChicago Board of Trade Market News
ovince, Mato Grosso, will increasing its own consumption as ethanol plants compete with feed and exports. Conab has raised its estimate of national corn production this year. Agrural says the safrinha crop harvest is up 12 percent to 56 percent overall. (AgriCensus)

China: AFS and reforms will reduce corn production by 1.5 percent. The reforms could cause the corn crop to drop by 920,000 tons to 253 MMT. AFS is also reducing feed demand and causing the closure of animal feed mills. The Agriculture Ministry lowered corn utilization in 2019/20 by 2 MMT to 278 MMT. It also said there was a 23.9 percent drop in the sow herd in May from a year earlier, though others estimate a much larger drop. The weekly corn auction sold 522,921 MT, or just 13.5 percent of the amount offered. (Reuters; Farmers Business Network)

EU: German co-ops cut their estimate for corn production by 6 percent. (AgriCensus)

Kenya: The cost of corn flour is surging but the government is debating over whether to allow 1 MMT of corn imports to fill the shortage. USDA predicts the country will need 1.3 MMT of corn imports.

Corn flour prices may rise 25 percent but the government’s Strategic Food Reserve Trust Fund says there is enough corn. There is a charge of corruption in past corn imports and the Fund says imports benefit traders and hurt farmers. (Bloomberg; USDA)

South Africa: The corn harvest is refocusing fears on lower yields. (Agricultural Business Chamber)

Ukraine: Large carryover stocks enabled 2019/20 corn exports to go over 1 MMT. ProAgro raised the estimate of 2019 corn production to 34.52 MMT with a yield of 7.25 MT/Ha. That would be just shy of last year’s 35.8 MMT of corn production. (AgriCensus; Farmers Business Network)