Market Perspectives – January 12, 2023

U.S. Weather/Crop Progress

U.S. Drought Monitor Weather Forecast: During the next five days (January 12-16) more heavy precipitation is expected across California, with parts of the Sierra Nevada, Cascades and northwestern California expected to receive another 4 to 7 inches of rain. Similar amounts are forecast for parts of the immediate Oregon coastline, the Washington Cascades, and northwestern Washington, where normal amounts are much higher than across most of California. From the Great Basin and Intermountain West to the Mississippi River, conditions should be much more tranquil, with 0.5 to 1.5 inch restricted to some higher elevations in the central and southern Rockies and the Middle Mississippi Valley. Little or no precipitation is anticipated throughout the Plains. Meanwhile, a swath from the Ohio/Mississippi Confluence and the interior Southeast northeastward through New England is expected to receive at least 0.5 inch, with totals topping 1.5 inches in parts of Upstate New York and New England. Light amounts are expected in the Great Lakes Region, the upper Midwest, the South Atlantic coastal plains, and most of Florida. Temperatures throughout the contiguous states are expected to be near- or above-normal.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid Jan 17-21) shows above-normal precipitation favored over the vast majority of the contiguous states, and in southeastern Alaska. Chances exceed 60 percent that amounts will be in the wettest one-third of the historical distribution from northern California and adjacent Oregon eastward across northern Utah, and across the middle Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee River Valleys. Subnormal precipitation is only favored in a small strip along the Rio Grande in southwestern Texas, and no tilt of the odds in either direction were identified in the northern High Plains, the southwestern half of Texas, and southern Florida. Above-normal temperatures are expected across the central and eastern parts of the country, with the highest odds (over 80 percent) in the Northeast, the mid-Atlantic Region, the eastern Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, southern Appalachia, the Carolinas, and northern Georgia. Meanwhile, below-normal temperatures are expected from the Great Basin and central Rockies southward to the Mexican border, with the best chances (over 60 percent) in the desert Southwest and adjacent southern Rockies.

Follow this link to view current U.S. and international weather patterns and future outlook: Weather and Crop Bulletin.