Chicago Board of Trade Market News
Outlook: The interest in buying the March corn contract below $3.75 acted as a price floor and caused a sudden bounce back up to the $3.85 per bushel range on Tuesday. Prices then consolidated at that range for several days. The spike higher and then consolidation has the appearance of a flag or pennant on the end of a pole, which consequently is the reason that particular technical formation is referred to as a flag or pennant. The upward development of such a technical formation normally indicates that prices will continue higher by approximately the same amount as the pole’s length. In this case, it would imply that the March contract could bounce back up toward $4.00 per bushel. However, there several additional factors to consider:
A supportive factor is that some premium could be purchased back into corn contracts due to uncertainty about U.S. corn acreage. As well, export demand for U.S. corn continues to be strong. Alternatively, South American is about to harvest a sizable soybean crop and U.S. farmers are expected to increase their own soybean acreage. Weakness in soybean prices could indirectly dampen any increase in bullish enthusiasm for corn contracts.
Growing uncertainty about whether or be bullish, and by how much, is what creates greater volatility in futures contracts. Price volatility in corn contracts can be particularly high in early spring as acreage intentions are being defined and then again later in the year during the time-period just prior to pollination. The outlook is that it will also be the case this season.