Market Perspectives – December 6, 2018

Country News

Brazil: The bumper outlook for corn production has prices falling and more drops are expected. Corn, soybean and cotton producer SLC Agricola SA says that farming could expand into the 43 million unused hectares of the central Cerrado region. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Bulgaria: Several former Soviet republics have gotten into agricultural commodity exports with Bulgaria the latest, uniquely selling corn to South Korea. (AgriCensus)

Canada: Agriculture Canada had expected barley exports this year to drop about 500 KMT and for exports to China to represent the bulk of the fall off. However, because of dry conditions this growing season in Australia and Europe, barley exports to China are on track to match last year’s 1.4 MMT. Despite a scorching drought in August and then early snows and cold in the fall, Statistics Canada reports that the corn crop (13.88 MMT) will be down just -1.5 percent from 2017, and barley crop (8.38 MMT) will be 6.2 percent larger. (FarmLead; Bloomberg)

Europe: The European Commission raised its estimate for 2018/19 maize production by 600 KMT to a total of 62.6 MMT. It also increased the estimate for corn imports by 2.2 MMT to a total of 18.5 MMT. (Europa)

South Africa: The Agribusiness Confidence index fell to its lowest level since the global recession year of 2009. The industry’s leaders fear the impact of drought on the current maize crop, and the government’s efforts to seize and redistribute farm land without compensation to its current owners. (Bloomberg)

South Korea: Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) purchased 70 KMT of corn at $204.30 plus a $1.25/MT surcharge for two-port discharge. NOFI purchased 70 KMT of corn earlier in the week for $202.18/MT but with April delivery. South Korea’s industry has purchased 450 KMT since the beginning of November. (AgriCensus)

Taiwan: The Maize Industry Procurement Association (formerly MFIG) purchased 65 KMT at $205.75/MT from Louis Dreyfus. (AgriCensus)

Thailand: A combination of limited water supplies for rice, attractive prices for corn and government financial support for off-season corn production will cause 2018/19 output to rise by 6 percent to 5.3 MMT. (USDA/FAS/GAIN)

Ukraine: The Institute of Agrarian Economics reports that the nation produced a record 35.2 MMT corn crop, which is a 42.7 percent increase over 2017. This was largely the result of warm weather driving yields from 5.46 MT/Ha last season to 7.69 MT/Ha. The export pace for corn has picked up, offsetting a drop off in barley exports. Exports were not impacted by the Azov Sea situation where access has been partially restored. (UkrAgroConsult; Black Sea Grain; AgriCensus)

Zimbabwe: One of the nation’s largest food manufacturers, National Foods, will be shutting its doors. The corn/flour miller lacks foreign currency needed to pay its bills. (World-Grain)