Chicago Board of Trade Market News
The December WASDE will be published next Wednesday. Final revisions to the data will not be published until January, but it would not take much of a bullish surprise to increase the upside of the present trading range for the March corn contract. That is because the market is transitioning into the increasingly uncertain and generally bullish pre-planting time of the first quarter.
The ability to purchase corn below $4.00 per bushel in the first quarter of 2015 is attractive. Sales have been active this season because buyers know that they are unlikely to be criticized for purchasing needs below that price level. However, there is likely to be ample criticism of any buyer if the opportunity to purchase below $4.00 per bushel comes and goes without any real action.
End-users are not the only market participants who are susceptible to scrutiny for a lost opportunity; large speculative traders who hold short positions are normally better off taking some profits and then reentering the market later at a better location rather than remaining inactive as profits to just come and go.
In commodity markets it is the ebb and flow of concerns and emotions that alters perceptions. It is perceptions that determines if corn approaching $4.00 per bushel is entirely too high and should be sold, or if it is still a buying opportunity. The outlook is that we are going into a time period when the latter thought will become increasingly prevalent.