Country News
Argentina: The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate for the corn crop to a range of 42-51 MMT due to drought. (AgriCensus)
Brazil: USDA/FAS raised its forecast for 2022/23 corn production by 5 percent from its last estimate to a new total of 126 KMT. If realized, that would be 8.6 percent higher output than a year ago based on increased planted are and improved yields. Agrinvest says farmers have purchased just 75 percent of their supplies for the second crop corn, down from the five-year average of 83 percent. The cause is declining input prices and the potential to increase margins by delaying.
The exporters’ association ANEC reported lower corn exports for November with Abiove saying protests blocking shipments have raised freight costs by 20 percent. Landslides have also blocked access to the port at Paranaguá. However, ANEC believes the supply agreement with China could boost corn exports to 40-50 MMT. HedgePoint Global Markets says 368 KMT of corn was exported to China in November. (AgriCensus; Brownfield Ag News; Reuters)
EU: European traders are concerned that newly enabled sales of Brazilian corn to China will increase the prices they have to pay from a traditional supplier. With its own output trimmed and Ukraine’s supplies reduced, Europe has been importing historically large volumes of corn. Thus far in 2022/23, corn imports are at 11.54 MMT, versus last year at 5.09 MMT. Poland’s corn harvest could fall 1 MMT shy of official figures and the overall EU corn production forecast was lowered by 3 percent to 53.5 MMT. On the upside, the planting of winter barley continues in France under stable weather conditions. (AgriCensus; SPGlobal)
Russia: The corn export tax was dropped to zero for the first week of December making an indicative price of $222.1/MT. The tax on barley exports was lowered to 2,308.6 rubles/MT and leaves an indicative price of $283.7/MT. (AgriCensus)
South Africa: The Crop Estimates Committee made its final estimate for the corn crop at 15.38 MMT based on higher yields. Meanwhile, the cost of the coarsely ground corn called “samp” is up almost 15 percent. (AgriCensus; Bloomberg)
South Korea: MFG bought 70 KMT of corn and another 69 KMT for March delivery via a private deal. FLC purchased 60 KMT of corn. NOFI obtained 136 KMT of corn for February/March delivery. (AgriCensus; Reuters)
Tunisia: State grain buyer ODC tendered for 100 KMT of barley and eventually purchased 75 KMT for December-January delivery. (AgriCensus)
Turkey: State grain buyer TMO purchased 495 KMT of barley for January-February delivery. (AgriCensus)
Ukraine: Russia has slowed the inspection of Ukrainian grain being exported by sea. Exports this campaign are down 31.7 percent, with 8.6 MMT of corn and 1.3 MMT of barley making it out. The Ukrainian Agrarian Council says that this will lead to a decrease in future sown crops, with corn the likely first one reduced. Snow is everywhere and only half of this past summer’s corn has been harvested. (BDNews; APK-Inform; Reuters)