Market Perspectives – August 12, 2021

Country News

Argentina: Corn ending stocks are 260 KMT higher than expected. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that the corn harvest is progressing at a good pace. Meanwhile, authorities are probing the collapse of a silo. (AgriCensus)

Brazil: Conab forecasts the Safrinha corn crop at 60.322 MMT, down from 66.970 MMT in July and 75.053 MMT a year ago. AgroConsult thinks the Safrinha crop will only be 60.9 MMT. The total crop is pegged at 86.6 MMT, down 6.75 MMT from July. Exports are expected at 23.5 MMT and imports unchanged at 2.3 MMT. Some private estimates place corn exports at 19 MMT and imports at 3.5 MMT. Customs data indicates corn exports are down 50 percent from a year earlier on a daily throughput basis and below the five-year average. AgRural reports that 58 percent of the nation’s Safrinha corn crop is harvested. Deral reports that Parana’s Safrinha corn harvest is now 22 percent complete. IMEA says Mato Grosso’s corn harvest is 93.4 percent complete and exports continue to grow. The Union of Poultry Producers and Industries in the State of Parana (Sindiavipar) is considering incentives such as forward contracts at high prices as inducements for farmers to plant more corn. (Reuters; Soybean & Corn Advisor; SPGlobalPlatts)

EU: Barley exports are outpacing 2020, in part due to an official data correction, and due to substantial Chinese purchases routing through Rouen. Soufflet says spring barley quality is satisfactory despite heavy rains. (AgriCensus)

Russia: Officials reduced the barley export tax by $11.50/MT for August 8-17, 2021. (AgriCensus)

South Africa: Corn export potential this year has run into stiff competition from Ukraine. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: MFG purchased 207 KMT of corn for November delivery. (AgriCensus)

Tunisia: The government trade agency ODC bought 100 KMT of barley at $292/MT CNF. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Around 20 percent of the export potential has been sold. (AgriCensus)