Market Perspectives – August 10, 2023

Country News

Algeria: State agency ONAB tendered for 100 KMT of animal feed corn and is believed to have purchased 40 KMT from Argentina for August delivery. (Reuters)

Argentina: The government’s allowance for a corn dollar exchange rate boosted corn exports in July to their highest volume in seven years. The Rosario Grains Exchange predicts that normal seasonal weather will restore 2023/24 corn output to 56 MMT, versus the 34 MMT produced in the 2022/23 drought-stricken season. (Reuters; AgriCensus)

Australia: As of 5 August, China dropped punitive tariffs on barley imports from Down Under. Barley prices in Australia jumped 10 percent on the news. The timing of China’s prior adverse actions against Australia’s barley was mitigated by a three-year period of higher commodity prices and the interest by other markets in acquiring the grain. (Refinitiv)

Brazil: Deral reports that Paraná’s second corn crop harvesting proceeds with the benefit of dry weather. Now in its final stretch, IMEA says second crop corn hit 51 MMT in Mato Grosso. AgRural raised its estimate for the crop by 3 MMT to 135 MMT. Anec expects corn exports in August to hit 8.8 MMT. Conab raised its estimate for the 2022/23 corn crop just shy of USDA’s estimate. (AgriCensus)

EU: The FAS attached lowered the forecast for corn output by 6.8 percent to 60 MMT due to lower area and yield. The estimate for the barley crop was lowered to 48.2 MMT, 12.6 percent below the 2019/20 crop. The agreement by China to remove punitive tariffs on Australian barley will put downward pressure on French barley prices. (FAS GAIN)

Philippines: A temporary tariff reduction on corn exports scheduled to expire at the end of 2023 may be extended to suppress food inflation. Dry conditions due to El Niño continue to pressure food prices higher. (Reuters)

South Africa: The Animal Feed Manufacturers Association says feed prices are rising in response to rising global prices, which largely follow the CBOT. Feed millers have largely absorbed the shrinking margins for their product. (World Grain)

South Korea: MFG rejected all offers in its recent tender for corn. (AgriCensus)

Turkey: After the government green light, the first offers of Turkish corn in the export market appeared. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The barley harvest in 2023 is now believed to be 18 percent higher at 5.2 MMT, though that is still nearly 50 percent less than in 2021 before the war. Barley exports in MY 2023/24 are predicted at 2.6 MMT. The forecast for corn production was also increased, though by a smaller 11 percent to 26.9 MMT, down 28 percent from 2021 and exports are pegged at 22 MMT. (Ukrinform)