Market Perspectives – April 22, 2021

Country News

Argentina: The Rosario Grain Exchange predicts that the 2020/21 corn crop will hit 50 MMT, up from 48.5 MMT in its previous forecast. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 17 percent of the corn crop is harvested and total output is still pegged at 46 MMT. (Reuters)

Brazil: The Departamento de Economia Rural lowered its estimate of Parana’s safrinha corn crop from 14 MMT to 13.4 MMT. It also lowered the percentage of Parana’s crop rated good/excellent from 76 percent last week to 62 percent this week.  Parana produces 15 percent of Brazil’s corn. IHS Markit lowered its estimate of the safrinha corn crop by 6.5 percent to 79.45 MMT and Rabobank lowered its estimate of overall corn production by 2 MMT to a 105 MMT estimate. A Reuters survey of 11 analysts pegged the corn crop at 107.3 MMT. The lowest estimate was provided by the consultancy AgRural, which cited a crop of 103.4 MMT. Some regions have gone without rain for 30 days and the forecast remains too dry for the remainder of the monsoonal tropical moisture flow. This has led some of the more pessimistic forecasters to think the crop could shrink to 91-93 MMT. The government extended the duty suspension on imported corn until the end of the year as it fights inflation. Livestock growers have imported corn from Argentina and could import corn from the U.S. and Ukraine. The Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA) has asked the government to allow the importation of U.S. GMO corn currently lacking approvals if emergency supplies are needed. (Reuters)

China: Corn imports could hit a record 28 MMT in 2020/21 and 15 MMT in 2021/22. Traders are reporting that China has already purchased at least 1 MMT of new crop U.S. corn for delivery in the fourth quarter. China is reporting rising pig numbers and increases in pork production, but others say sow productivity is declining amid a resurgence in ASF. (Bloomberg; Reuters; USDA/FAS; Dim Sums)

Kenya: Assuming good weather, corn production will remain steady in 2021/22 at 4 MMT but rising feed demand will push corn imports 25 percent higher to 500 KMT. (FAS GAIN)

South Korea: Kocopia passed on purchasing on a tender for July delivery but KFA purchased 65 KMT of corn in a private purchase with spot shipment. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: Weekly corn exports dropped by 63 percent as the next crop starts to get sown. Exports of corn in the July 2020 – June 2021 marketing year total 18.1 MMT and barley is 4.1 MMT. (Reuters; AgriCensus)