Market Perspectives – April 16, 2020

Country News

Africa: The locust plague hitting corn crops in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia is moving east toward western Asia where India and Pakistan could be impacted. Kenya will import 4 million bags of maize, half white and half yellow. Meanwhile, coronavirus lockdowns are preventing farmers from getting food to markets across the continent. (FarmLead; Bloomberg; Associated Press)

Argentina: The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate for corn production from 51.5 MMT to 50.5 MMT due to bad weather in March. (Reuters)

Brazil: USDA says that dry conditions have lowered 2019/20 corn production to 100 MMT and feed demand will be 1 MMT lower to 67 MMT due to COVID-19 effects. By contrast, Conab raised its corn production estimate by 1.8 MMT to 101.8 MMT. (USDA/FAS/GAIN; Soybean and Corn Advisor)

China: The government is reversing its previous effort to reduce corn planted area as feed demand is expected to rise 4 percent in 2020/21. Dalian corn futures prices have spiked to their highest level since 2015 at the same time Chicago futures are at their lowest level since 2016. Feed mills have become cautious about buying grain amid rumors that imports will be arriving in April and May to tamp down prices. The government raised its corn import forecast for 2019/20 by 1 MMT to 5 MMT and its auctions of reserve corn are expected to start soon. There are 11 shipments of U.S. sorghum in route to China. (USDA/FAS; Reuters; Bloomberg)

EU: Romania will lift its grain export embargo as early as Friday. The government has banned sales outside of the EU.  (AgriCensus)

Saudi Arabia: Government grain buyer SAGO purchased 600 KMT of barley at $199/MT. (AgriCensus)

South Korea: Kocopia tendered and bought 56.5 KMT of corn for delivery on 20 July. (AgriCensus)

Ukraine: The Ministry for Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture says grain exports are up 21.3 percent from a year ag, including 24.6 MMT of corn and 4.5 MMT of barley. Corn for export was being loaded at $175.50/MT FOB while US Gulf corn is assessed at $152.25/MT. (World Grain; AgriCensus)

Vietnam: Concerned about the availability of US DDGS, Vietnam saw offers for 2,000 MT of containerized Hungarian DDGS at $207/MT plus an offer of 1,000 MT from Ukraine. (AgriCensus)