Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 3.8 percent higher but pared those gains in early week trading and fell 2.1 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week but were unchanged through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 54.13 cents/liter (204.9 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 4.6 percent higher but are down 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 52.97 cents/liter (200.51 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 2.3 percent to 56.35 cents/liter (213.315 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -3.38 cents/liter (-12.8 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 5.8 percent last week and continued that trend in early week trading to fall 0.8 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 11.89 cents/liter (45.02 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week and continued that weakness through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 0.8 percent while Toluene was down 2.1 percent, and Xylene was down 2.1 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 81.44 cents/liter (308.29 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 28.47 cents/liter (107.78 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week and extended those losses in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 6.3 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are down 6.4 and 6.8 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 4.4 percent lower at $70.29/barrel while Brent futures are down 4.3 percent to $73.6/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are largely unchanged this week but offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest gains (up 5 percent). Freight from the U.S. PNW to India saw the largest declines and is down 2 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 0.1 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 2 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 1 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 6 percent lower than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are once again mixed with stronger FOB offers from the U.S. Gulf offsetting declines in freight rates while decreases in FOB values in the PNW and Brazil have weakened C&F estimates from those origins. Prices for ethanol C&F Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 1.5 percent this week and are down 15.2 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $781.78/MT this week, down 2.2 percent from the prior week and down 5.3 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $761.54/MT and are up 1.2 percent from last week but are down 13.4 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 2 percent from last week.
