Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 0.6 percent lower, extended those losses in early week trading and fell 1.3 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week but were down 0.7 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 45.7 cents/liter (173.01 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 1.6 percent higher but are down 1.3 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 43.73 cents/liter (165.54 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 0.1 percent to 55.34 cents/liter (209.475 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -11.61 cents/liter (-43.93 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 10.5 percent last week and were weaker again in early week trading to fall 1.1 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 11.06 cents/liter (41.88 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week and continued that trend through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 1.5 percent while Toluene was down 0.5 percent, and Xylene was up 0.7 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 80.98 cents/liter (306.55 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 37.25 cents/liter (141.01 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly higher last week but have retreated in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 5.7 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are down 5.9 and 5.9 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 5.8 percent lower at $67.62/barrel while Brent futures are down 6.4 percent to $71.17/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 30 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to South Korea saw the largest declines and is down 5 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 3 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 5 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 1 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 20 percent lower than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower FOB offers for ethanol have offset gains in liquid tanker freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 1.2 percent this week and are down 30.5 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $651.85/MT this week, down 1.3 percent from the prior week and down 25.8 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $630.67/MT and are down 2.3 percent from last week and are down 30.8 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 0.4 percent from last week.
