Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 3.3 percent lower and dropped further in early week trading and fell 1.3 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 1.1 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 64.06 cents/liter (242.5 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 0.5 percent higher but are down 0.2 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 64.42 cents/liter (243.84 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 0.5 percent to 55.7 cents/liter (210.865 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s trading.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at 8.71 cents/liter (32.97 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 12.3 percent last week and extended that weakness in early week trading to fall 3.4 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 16.83 cents/liter (63.73 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week but were mixed through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 2.1 percent while Toluene was down 4.1 percent, and Xylene was down 4.1 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 95.59 cents/liter (361.85 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 31.18 cents/liter (118.01 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week and have traded both sides of unchanged in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 1.7 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are up 1.3 and up 1.3 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 0.2 percent higher at $87.85/barrel while Brent futures are down 1.1 percent to $89.9/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 2 percent lower on average this week with offers for Brazil to India seeing the largest gains (up 0.1 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 14 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 3 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 2 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 0 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 11 percent lower than this same week in 2022.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have moved below last week’s values. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 0.8 percent this week and are down 4.3 percent from this same week in 2022. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $793.66/MT this week, down 1 percent from the prior week and down 3.6 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $931.4/MT and are down 0.8 percent from last week and are down 5.3 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 1 percent from last week.
