Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 5.3 percent lower and continued that trend in early week trading to fall 1.2 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 1.3 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 46.23 cents/liter (175 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 0.3 percent lower and are down 1.9 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 44.86 cents/liter (169.81 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 0.3 percent to 54.74 cents/liter (207.23 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -9.88 cents/liter (-37.42 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 0.5 percent last week but reversed course in early week trading to fall 0.3 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 11.53 cents/liter (43.66 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week and continued that trend through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 1.7 percent while Toluene was down 0.4 percent, and Xylene was up 2 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 68.76 cents/liter (260.27 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 23.9 cents/liter (90.45 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were higher last week but were softer in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 2.9 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are down 3.6 and 3.6 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 2.9 percent lower at $69.2/barrel while Brent futures are down 3.3 percent to $72.72/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates largely unchanged this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 1 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the West Coast of Central America saw the largest declines and is down 0.1 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf and PNW are both unchanged this week. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are also mostly steady this week as freight markets see the entrance of the typically slow holiday demand period. Freight rates across all origins are 24 percent lower than this same week in 2023.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower FOB offers for ethanol have offset steady prices in liquid tanker freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 3.4 percent this week and are down 18.8 percent from this same week in 2023. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $678.4/MT this week, down 3 percent from the prior week and down 12.8 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $652.6/MT and are down 3.2 percent from last week and are down 13.6 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 0.8 percent from last week.
