Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 3.5 percent higher and continued that rally in early week trading and rose 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week and unchanged through Tuesday’s market at 50.89 cents/liter (192.63 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 1 percent lower but are up 0.1 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 49.43 cents/liter (187.12 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 0 percent to 57.52 cents/liter (217.74 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -8.09 cents/liter (-30.62 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 0.6 percent last week and were weaker still in early week trading to fall 1.4 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 1.91 cents/liter (7.23 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply higher last week and saw that support continue through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.6 percent while Toluene was up 0.8 percent, and Xylene was up 0.3 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 73.03 cents/liter (276.45 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 23.6 cents/liter (89.34 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly lower last week but were lower in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 0.9 percent to start the week while 87 CBOB (FOB Gulf) and 87 conventional gasoline (FOB Gulf) prices are down 1.6 and 2.1 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 0.6 percent higher at $61.9/barrel while Brent futures are down 0.5 percent to $64.48/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 7 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 79 percent). Freight from U.S. PNW – WC Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 13 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 12 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 0.1 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 2 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 24 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have climbed higher. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 2.9 percent this week and are down 2.9 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $697.35/MT this week, up 0.3 percent from the prior week but down 8.3 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $682.53/MT and are up 1.8 percent from last week but are down 4.3 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 1 percent from last week.
