Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 7.9 percent lower and extended those declines in early week trading and fell 3 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 1.5 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 47.26 cents/liter (178.88 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 7.1 percent lower and are down 2.6 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 46.04 cents/liter (174.28 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week and the last available quotes before markets closed for the Carnival holiday on Monday, March 3 and Tuesday, March 4 had prices near 59.11 cents/liter (223.75 cents/gallon).
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -13.07 cents/liter (-49.48 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 2 percent last week and were weaker still in early week trading to fall 2.7 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 11.32 cents/liter (42.84 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week and continued that trend through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 3.5 percent while Toluene was down 1.6 percent, and Xylene was down 2.5 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 73.22 cents/liter (277.16 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 27.18 cents/liter (102.89 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week and extended that selloff in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 3.3 percent to start the week while 84 octane RBOB (Houston) and 87 octane CBOB (U.S. Gulf) gasoline prices are down 0.4 and 0.9 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 4 percent lower at $66.95/barrel while Brent futures are down 3.8 percent to $70.03/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 2 percent lower on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the West Coast of Central America seeing the smallest declines (down 1 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to South Korea saw the largest declines and is down 2 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 2.4 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 2 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 1 percent from their prior quotes. Freight rates across all origins are 27 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have moved below last week’s values. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 5.9 percent this week and are up 11.6 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $673.94/MT this week, down 5 percent from the prior week and down 0.5 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $674.5/MT and are down 5.6 percent from last week but are up 2.3 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 1.5 percent from last week’s report.
